May 04, 2003

Bombs hideaway

I was thinking about WMDs (no -- really!) and then this post at Mr. Helpful's blog caused some of the random thoughts I had coalesce into something more or less coherent, considering my lack of expertise in this area and in all areas military, strategic, and political. Well, I guess that is why he is Mr. Helpful.

Like many people, Mr. Helpful is antsy about the US finding the big bombs and stuff. But -- I am not going to go on here about the size of the country and so forth -- it has been done to death. On the other hand, I think a lot of people are losing sight of the fact that this war was touted as a "pre-emptive" war. In fact, that was one of the real big bitches against it. "'Pre-emptive'!" a lot of critics shrieked. "Who does Dubya think he is -- God? Our parents?" That second criteria being even more evil than the first. But I am getting off the track here.

The idea that we were invading Iraq to prevent Saddam from developing/assembling an arsenal of weapons of mass destruction that he was specifically directed not to do by the sacred overlords of the United Nations (whom everyone pays lipservice to but no one obeys) was one of the criticisms against the war -- the idea that it was presumptuous, that we had no right, and so on. I am not going to go into the social ramifications of that attitude tonight. I am going to address the idea that the critics (I'd call them the antiwar contingent, but they are not all of that, nor are they wholly of the left) have now dropped that idea -- a sensible tactic, since the invasion is now a moot point -- and are now into the idea that we must now find WMDs inside Iraq to justify the war. I have actually even seen it postulated (see the comments) that the lack of such WMDs are grounds of impeachment of President Bush. Of course that idea is laughable on its face.

But to find WMDs -- there is the rub. Where are we to begin? Hussein had a whole country, of some size, to play with, for at least a dozen years. In Mr. Helpful's comments I said (in some less detail) that if I were an Evil Overlord like Saddam Hussein, and my most hated enemy was simultaneously massing armed forces off my borders while talking the aggressive talk to the world concerning moi (l'état, c'est moi), and had I already had assembled at least a small arsenal -- even one nuclear warhead -- of WMDs, I would not have pussyfooted around and waited and played with Hans Blix's head the way he did. Rather, I would have wasted no time in launching a warhead containing some deadly agent -- plutonium, smallpox, poisonous gas, whatever -- at some nearby place; Kuwait, most likely. (And before any of you even think of dragging out that old dead horse about Arab solidarity or any such nonsense please remember that Saddam Hussein has shown no more compassion or caring for his fellow actual Arab brother than he has for the Kurdish women and children he had gassed just so he could make sure his human spray killed people dead like the label said. He was in all ways a traditional Arab chieftain -- a thug to whom his underlings were no more than cannon fodder when the chips were down, up, or in a drawer.)

If I were an Evil Overlord like Saddam, I'd have nuked Kuwait City the moment I heard the war talk start. Saddam was delusional and evil, but he wasn't entirely stupid. He knew as well as I, a part-time auto insurance agent, that once you showed the world that you have the Bomb, you were guaranteed the kid glove treatment for life. Look at North Korea.

So no, I don't think we are going to find any WMDs. I think that we are going to find parts of WMDs. I think that we are going to find a stash of cesium some-number here, a crate of vials of anthrax there. I think we are going to find "baby milk" factories with warehouses full of mysterious metal tubes that are rather larger than even elephant baby bottles; I think that we are going to find caves with partly assembled rocket launchers that were only missing the pertinent part to be completed. And that is going to be only the tip of the iceberg. And we will find that certain countries (whose names begin with F, G, and R) were in it up to their elbows. In fact, I think that we have started to find these things out, but that they are being kept until a really devastating dossier of evidence has been developed. That seems to be the Dubya methodology.

I will say this. I think that the UN inspector shenanigans helped somewhat. I think that all that nonsense distracted Hussein enough, and scared enough potential sellers of deadly shtuff, that he was prevented from realizing his wet dream of building a nuclear weapon. (I think he fell back on poison gas as a sloppy second, but the big bangflash nukes were his one true desire.) So I think they were useful idiots in this endeavor. Or were they? Sometimes I wonder if UN incompetence and intransigence is entirely the truth of the matter. Maybe all of this -- the posturing of Chirac, the UN's maneuverings, the blatherings of Schroeder (anyone else have visions of some short blond kid at the piano every time his name is mentioned?), the treachery and the buffoonery -- was all an elaborate ruse, a ruse pulled on Saddam Hussein. Then again, I am not so sure pols are that smart -- my intellectual (now there's a word I'd like to steal back, if I wasn't so sure it wasn't as gutted as a Honda Prelude that's been in the chop shop for a month) side rises up against the notion that there wasn't a lot of dumb luck on our side this time, and we just happened to catch the Euroleaders and the Arabs in a particularly stupid part of their career.

Posted by Andrea Harris at May 4, 2003 03:56 AM
Comments

hi andrea...

unfortunately there is no escaping the fact that, according to this administration, iraq was buried up to its elbows in wmds and they were THIS close to using them or making them available for others to use and THAT was why we had to go in there NOW and enforce the UN resolutions.

i agree with you wholeheartedly. my bar of "proof of wmd" is set exceptionally low. give me some barrels of verified badass ickiness as well as a few scattered missiles and what you refer to as my "antsiness" (i like to call it "nervous tension") disappears as quickly as the mist hanging over my pond did this morning.

but bush has to give us something and he knows it. THAT'S why they are advertising for scientists over in iraq and, believe me, if they can find a couple who can point them in the right direction, those scientists will never lack for anything again in their lives.

again, though, i ask, doesnt it seem rather desperate for us to be doing that? after all, we supposedly had incontrovertible proof BEFORE going in..where's that proof now? why isnt that proof leading us in the direction of disassembled warheads and barrels of badass ickiness?

if we cant find anything in iraq, all the spin in the world wont be able to fill the huge credibility gap which will suddenly appear in the bush administration...and that spells bad news for any future bush policy initiatives

Posted by: mr. helpful at May 4, 2003 at 11:46 AM

I think you are worrying too much. I think that we don't know even a tenth of the things the Bush administration knows and has not disclosed. Also, I think that it would be silly to expect a sign labelled "WMDs here!" What we think of as "proof" beforehand is not like the "proof" in a game of Clue -- the bloodstained knife is not going to be lying on the table.

But you know what? I am repeating myself already. It hasn't even been a month yet. We still are trying to secure the place. We've got the goddamn Iranians futzing around as well. Give us some time for chrissake.

Posted by: Andrea Harris at May 4, 2003 at 12:13 PM

But, but . . . as I understand it, we have some idea of what the Iraqis themselves said they had a decade ago, and it doesn't tally with what they said they had last year. To believe that it's no longer there, you have to believe that (a) they destroyed this stuff after the inspectors were gone; and (b) they either did it without making any record of it (this in an enormously centralized, bureaucratic state), or else deliberately refused to hand over the record even when doing so would have forestalled an invasion.

Does this make sense?

Posted by: Michelle Dulak at May 4, 2003 at 01:15 PM

I didn't say the weapons were no longer there or destroyed -- I said their weapons were either unfinished or dissasembled. You need a specific type of plutonium for a nuclear weapon, and a specific amount -- by all report Saddam was trying everything he could to get his hands on some.

Also, we tend to think of centralized states being all neat and efficient -- I don't know why, since the evidence from real, actual heavily bureaucratized, centralized states is that they are inefficient, riddled with corruption, as well as overwhelmed by record-keeping that is both massive and inaccurate, and so on. I'm sure there are records upon records in triple-quadruplicate of everything down to the studs on soldiers' boots in Iraq, and I am sure that they are not even as organized and easy to search through as the city dump. Especially after all the fun war stuff. It's going to take months just to sort through the records. And at the risk of repeating myself, we are not going to find a building or a cave with a sign outside that says "Nukes are here."

Posted by: Andrea Harris at May 4, 2003 at 01:53 PM

Hey, guess what the WMD was the regime and Sadamn. Enough evidence to cover that isn't there? Bush started out by defining the regime as the Weapon. Chemicals just sit there, like guns. So in my book the WMD has been removed so get on with the rebuilding. Agreed on the "dumb" luck. I think it was a bonus that the French and German leaders were able to get Sadamn to disarm as much as they did. I thank them for that. Can you imagine having your enemy disarming as you amass your troops on the boarder. Not a good plan, but if you ego was as big as Sadamns I guess it can somehow make sense.

Posted by: Wayne at May 5, 2003 at 02:03 AM

I'm reminded of somebody's argument against the war that said something like, "We don't need to get rid of Saddam, just disarm him." I won't humiliate the fool by naming him, because (1) he's beyond humiliation anyway, and (2) I don't remember for sure.

The point is, it was becoming increasingly obvious that disarming Iraq wasn't going to happen, to where we could rely on it, as long as Saddam remained in power. Even if he was disarmed, he could not be trusted not to re-arm later. He had to go.

Posted by: Kevin McGehee at May 5, 2003 at 10:46 AM